Talk: Battle on the Green Fork

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Strength Estimate

Robb stark had 18k at Moat Cailin (according to aGoT Catelyn VIII), He gained another 4k frey at the Twins and sent the foot down the kings road while he took the horse across.


Robb had 12,000 men in Winterfell. 9,000 foot and 3,000 horse. At Moat Cailin he had 18,000 men. If the same ratio of horse-to-foot remained, he had 13,500 foot, and 4,500 horse. Together with Walder Frey's 3,000 foot and 1,000 horse, Robb had a host 22,000 strong, comprising 5,500 horse, and 16,500 foot. 800 foot remained at the Twins, and 90% of the horse went with Robb, while 10% went with Roose. That gives Roose roughly 15,700 foot, and 550 horse. A total of 16,250 men.

Tywin is estimated with 20,000 men, and had 300 wildlings with him, for a total of 20,300 men. Tywin's right flank was comprised of 4,000 cavalry. The left was also all mounted, and comprised ~1,000 men, including Tyrion and his 300 wildlings ("Gregor waved his huge sword and bellowed a command, and a thousand other voices screamed back at him."). Tywin had 2,500 horse, and 2,500 foot in reserve. Kevan had 300 horse, and the rest of the infantry. 20,300 - 4,000 - 1,000 - 5,000 - 300 = 10,000 pikemen, archers, and men-at-arms in the center.

Robb claims to have 18,000 men after he is joined by Manderly's force. Nyrhex 22:07, 8 November 2013 (UTC)

Robb does say he has 18.000 men after Manderly joins him however he doesn't know at that time how many men Mandelry Locke and flint of Flint's finger have all brought to Moat Cailin so he has 18.000 without them and he has 20.000 men after they join him so Roose has 18.000 footmen. [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 10 November 2013

I am not so sure about the remaining northern soldiers If someone could tell me in which book chapter the casualties are mentioned I would really appreciate it [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 10 November 2013

Robb should know how many men are on thier way, as he was waiting for them at that specific location. He should have known how many Manderly sent, as Manderly should know where to send them. It's the same as in Winterfell when Bran is told that with the 2,300 Karsarks, that makes 12,000 in Winterfell. The casualties are a calculatiopn of the other losses, combined with Roose's remaining stength when he meets up with Robb. Bolton sent 3,000 men to Duskendale, what is described by Robb as "a third of my foot". That gives Roose 9-10k men prior to Duskendale. 3,000 losses in Duskendale, 2,000 on the Ruby Ford, 600 as garrison there, and Roose' remaining force is 500 horse and 3,000 foot. 3k+2k+600+500+3k=9,100. Prior to Duskendale Roose also had ~2,600 Frey foot. It is unlikely that they stayed after Robb married Jeyne, and Roose claims that most of his 3,500 men are from the Dreadfort, and some from Karhold. The losses at Duskendale and the Ruby Ford were of Northern houses, in preperations for the Red Wedding. 9,100+2,600=11,700. If Roose had ~16,250 men as estimated above, it means that slightly more than a quarter of his force was destroyed (4,550 if we want to be specific, but we only get large numbers, and there is alot of room for error). Nyrhex 16:39, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

The Manderlys know were they are to go but I don't believe they have replied to Robb back about how many men they are to send to him. When Bran sees the Bannermen assembled in Winterfell maester Luwin doesn't say how many men the Manderly Locke and other lords will bring just that they are to meet Robb in Moat Cailin. if he knew then he would mention the numbers to Bran. Also Roose says to Jaime that 1000 Karstark men are searching for him plus there are 200 men that Roose sends to take Jaime back to King's landing. If we add these to the 11.700 Roose has before the freys leave and Karstark is executed: 11.700+1000+200=12.900. and If he lost 4550 men in the Green Fork then we have 17.450 men which is closer to 18.000 men at the green fork. [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 11 November 2013

I still don't see why Robb will tell his mother that he has 18,000 men, and not add "plus Manderly's force" if he did not already calculate it. He was talking about how many men he has without the Vale. Regarding your figures, 4,550 is calculating backwards. 200 men with Jaime and 1,000 Karstarks that should include 300 horsemen from Robb's army (I assume the other ~1,300 Karstark foot died on the Green Fork or at Duskendale, so I will not add those 300 horsemen), plus 11,700, is 12,600. Since the calculation was that Roose had ~16,250 men, he should have lost ~3,050 at the battle. Sticking with ~16,000 men in "strength", and "a few thousands" or "roughly 3,000" in casualties, seems the best bet. Agree? Nyrhex 18:35, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

I understand what you say and maybe you are right but the way I calculated was that Roose had ~18000 men at the Green fork and: lost 4500 men in battle lost 3000 freys Lost 3000 in duskendale lost 1000 Karstarks lost 2000 in the Ruby Ford Left 600 men back to guard the Ford sent 200 men with Jaime Lannister That leaves Roose with ~3500 men. But I could be mistaken and your estimation is more accurate [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 12 November 2013

I checked my books and I found in A Dance with Dragons in Theon's second chapter (Reek II) that when he sees Roose's men return back to the north he remembers that 20.000 swords went south with Robb or nearly as many (but definitely not 2000 less because that is a big difference) and now only 4000 of them return. So Robb had 20000 northern knights and men at arms with him and was joined by the Freys and their 4000 men and thne had 24000 men in total. So Roose must have had 18.000 men with him. [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 12 November 2013

The figure of ~4,550 men lost at the Geen Fork never came from the books, it was calculating backwards from the other figures, under the estimation that Roose started with ~16,000 men.

Theon also says that 2 in 10, or 1/5th are coming back. That would give 4,000 men. Roose only has 3,500 men, as he tells Robb and Catelyn. 3,500 times 5 = 17,500. Considering that both Robb and Roose were in command when giving the numbers for thier own figures, and so should have the best figures, and that Theon was giving an estimation by sight, I'd still go with the previouse 18,000 men with Manderly, 22,0000 with Frey, and ~16,000 on the Green Fork. It just seems that Theon is rounding it to a solid round figure, after estimating by sight. And 18k is close enough to 20k in this context. Nyrhex 19:53, 12 November 2013 (UTC)

Roose says he has 3500 men but he also left 600 men to guard the Ruby ford (spearmen from the Rills, the mountains, and the White Knife, a hundred longbow archers from House Hornwood, some freeriders and hedge knights, and some Stout and Cerwyn men) under the command of Ronnel Stout and Ser Kyle Condon). These men naturally return home with the rest of the northern soldiers so we have 4100 men in total but Theon estimates and says 4000. But what he does know for sure is that 20000 went south with Robb and based on what he estimated he says that 16000(4/5ths) men died south and only 4000(1/5th) come back. [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 13 November 2013

We don't know what happened with the 600 men. Roose left them there because he was trying to weaken the Northern housses. Right after the Red Wedding, Gregor Clegane takes thier position. We don't know if they escaped somewhere, or were all killed. We don't even know if they were actually left there, of if Roose killed them all and just outright lied that they were there. And again, Theon does not know for sure that 20,000 men left with Robb. This is why he says "close enough". For these numbers it is close enough if it's 18-20k. Robb and Roose however, are expected to know how many men they have. And this is without calculating the force Robb left in Moat Cailin, composed mainly of archers, and which we have no figures about. Combined with the fact that Manderly sent less than 2,000 men, Roose cannot have 18,000 men on the Green Fork either way. At most he will have slightly closer to 17k. Nyrhex 11:29, 13 November 2013 (UTC)

Theon knows how many men Robb had with him because he was in Robb's war councils and Robb trusted him completely. Roose had no reason to kill the men in the Ruby ford after the war was over and if he had killed them before the Red Wedding why lie? And the river was too deep so the Mountain could not attack them so they logically went back with him went back with him. And the difference between 18000-20000 men is a big difference, a difference of 200 300 or even 500 men is a small difference, 2000 men is a big difference especially for medieval armies. The archers that Robb left in Moat Cailin would be very few maybe 100-200 since Moat Cailin is impregnable and Robb only expects a force from the South. And Manderly is not the only lord that joined Robb in Moat Cailin also Locke and Flint of flint's finger and many other hedge knights, people that live close to the Crannogs and people that live near the King's Road joined his army along the way. The areas south of Winterfell must be more heavily populated because they probably have a slightly better climate compared to let's say Last Hearth. In addition when bran sees the banners he doesn't mention house Dustin and house Ryswell. Robb had 15500 men when he left Winterfell and Manderly brought 1500 men so that's 17000. Locke Flint Ryswell Dustin brought on average 600 men so that's 2400 men and all the lesser hedge knights and commoners that joined him another 1000 men. So ti's easy for Robb to have 20000 men and Roose 18000 [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 13 November 2013

1. Theon gives an estimate. 2. Roose had every reason to kill the 600 men he left. They were Northerners other than Karstark or himself. Karstark has a reason to join him, the rest don't. It's the whole point he leaves them there. Or claims to, at least. Why lie? Killing ~600 of your "own" men, right before you are about to betray your king and slay him and ~5,000 others? I'd say he had a good reason to lie... 3. Bran knew it was 2,300 Karstark men, and how many were mounted and how many were afoot, before they entered Winterfell's gate. 4. Karstark was the last, Robb waited specifically for him. So Robb had 12,000 men when he left Winterfell. 5. Maester Luwin Already knew of Manderly, and knew he was already prepared to join Robb, and where. 6. We don't know what each lord brought, other than Manderly and Karstark. Luwin mentions only Manderly and Flint as lords with hosts, so it is plausible that they are the two largest groups. 7. Robb says he has 18,000 without the Vale.

Basically it boils down to "did Robb mean 18k with, or without Manderly?", and "Do we trust Theon or Robb?". IMHO, past references suggests that Robb meant 17.5k with Manderly. Theon was rounding it up. With the backwards calculations we can simply give strength as 16-18, and casualties as 3-4.5k.

Nyrhex 07:36, 14 November 2013 (UTC)

1.Theon knows exactly how many men Robb has because he is very close to Robb and always on his counsel. He doesn't estimate. Robb trusted him so much he sent to make an alliance with Balon Greyjoy and has him always by his side they are as close as brothers. So Theon knows exactly what Robb knows. 2.Bran knew there were 2300 men but he doesn't know it beforehand. They have arrived in Winterfell in the morning and maester luwin has inspected the troops. They had not sent a raven beforehand saying how many men they will send and neither did Manderly. The lords cannot possibly know how many men they are able to summon beforehand because it takes time to gather and inspect the troops and see how many are able to come and are capable to do so. So Robb does not know how many Manderly will send before he does. If they did know then they Luwin would say "we still expect X thousand men to join us". And Robb does not have time to inspect the forces that Manderly brought. He definitely does not know how many Manderly brought. 3.Robb had 12000 on foot and 3300 on horse that's what Bran and Luwin say not that he has 12000 only.If Roose and Karstark brought 3500 men and 2300 men respectively how many men do you think house Stark summoned from their own estates and holdfasts -men sworn to them directly-. Around 7000 or 8000 and around 5000-6000 joined in Winterfell and the rest on the way south. If Robb then only had 12000 men when he left Winterfell how many men the other houses brought? At least 3000 men more. 3000+6000+5800=15000 men. 5.Still houses Ryswell Dustin Flint and Locke are big houses plus many more men that came on their own or were commoners or hedge knights in direct stark service, not to mention the crannongmen. They all could easily assemble 4000. [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 14 November 2013

1. Theon estimates. It's why he says "or close enough". 2. Bran sees the Karstarks through Luwin's spyglass. When they are outside the gates, he calls them 300 horse and 2,000 foot. Robb has 12,000 men with them. Bran sees the Karstarks and asks Luwin how many men thy have before Karstak arrives. - “How many is it now?” Bran asked Maester Luwin as Lord Karstark and his sons rode through the gates in the outer wall.. 3. Roose did not bring 3,500 men. The 3,500 men he had for the Red Wedding were mostly his, but also Karstarks. “Some five hundred horse and three thousand foot, my lady. Dreadfort men, in chief, and some from Karhold. With the loyalty of the Karstarks so doubtful now, I thought it best to keep them close. I regret there are not more.” 4. Could. But we are trying to figure out what they had all combined, not guess how many each of them brought. Robb said 18,000 without the Vale. I think it's clear he means that it's with Manderly.

Still, the figures currently show the upper and lower estimations. I think it's good enough. Nyrhex 16:42, 14 November 2013 (UTC)

A game of thrones Rpg which Martin supervised (the one that came out in 2005) in regards to details about the houses and the military numbers says that Robb had 20.000 . Just remembered that I had a pdf sample and looked at it. Martin saw the numbers and said they were right so Robb had 20.000 and Roose 18.000 . [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 14 November 2013 says that Robb had 18.000 men before meeting with Manderly's 1.500 men so if we add ~ 500 men from the Flints of Flint's finger then we have 20.000 men plus 4.000 Freys so 24.000 men in total. [[User:Pavlosbal|Pavlosbal] 14 August 2014